The growth of global electricity demand is slowing sharply in 2022 from its strong recovery in 2021 due to slower economic growth, soaring electricity prices, and health restrictions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Global electricity demand is seen rising 2.4% in 2022, lower than the 3% forecast in January, and is expected to maintain a similar growth rate in 2023, down from a 6% rise in 2021 and in line with the five-year average prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Demand growth in Asia-Pacific is seen at 3.4% in 2022, a full percentage point lower than expected in their previous report, and is expected to rise 4% in 2023. In China, demand is seen increasing 3% in 2022 though the outlook remains highly uncertain, the report said, adding that a 4% increase is expected in 2023, supported by recovery from suppressed demand due to lockdowns the year prior.
Growth in the Americas is expected at 2% in 2022 and to fall below 1% for 2023, while that in Europe is seen at less than 1% for 2022 with an uncertain 2023 forecast. Demand in the Middle East is seen up 2% in both 2022 and 2023, and in Africa up 4% in 2022 and 3% in 2023.
Electricity demand is seen falling 1% in Eurasia in 2022, driven mostly by a worse economic outlook for Russia which accounted for 80% of absolute electricity demand and demand growth in the region in 2021 and down 1% further in 2023. A notable exception to the demand slowdown is India, where high temperatures caused an upward revision for 2022 to 7%, while the 2023 growth forecast is 5%, reflecting high global prices and a correction from temperature-driven growth in 2022. Fossil fuel prices, economic growth and ongoing sanitary measures related to COVID are the main uncertainties affecting the 2023 forecast for global electricity demand and generation mix, the IEA said.
RENEWABLES LEAD SUPPLY GROWTH
Global renewable power generation is set to be the fastest-growing source of electricity supply in 2022, up 10%, while low-carbon generation is seen up 7%, which is expected to exceed demand growth and lead to a 1% drop in total fossil fuel generation.
Renewable growth is expected up 8% globally in 2023, which, combined with recovering nuclear generation, could displace more gas and coal power use. Rising renewable use is also expected to drive global emissions down half a percent in 2022 and 1% in 2023, following an all-time high in 2021. In the Americas, renewables are expected to continue to drive growth, led by the United States, where total renewable output is seen up 11% in 2022 and 6% in 2023, leading to the largest emissions declines globally. However, global coal use is expected to increase slightly in 2022 as Europe plans to turn to the more polluting resource in the short term to end reliance on Russian natural gas, increasing coal use by 8% while gas declines 7% in 2022.
India is similarly expected to increase coal use by 6% in 2022 while adding 9% to renewable generation. The increased coal use is expected to leave Europe as the only country with an increase in emissions in 2022, up 3%, which are then expected to fall by 8% in 2023. In China, coal-fired generation is seen falling by 1% for the full year marking the first decline since 2015 while use in 2023 is expected to make up for the losses in 2022. Emissions in Asia-Pacific are set to fall in 2022 but could rise by 1% in 2023 as incremental demand growth exceeds additional renewable generation.
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