Crude Oil Prices May Fall to $50 a Barrel by June 2026: SBI Report

Crude oil prices are projected to decrease significantly over three years 2025-2026, according to a report prepared by SBI Research. In June 2026, crude oil prices may come to an all-time low of $50 per barrel.

An influx of cheap imports into the Country will likely eliminate future inflationary pressures. At the same time, it will support the balance of payments, as well as the overall health and stability of the Indian economy.

The report said the deceleration in crude prices is likely to be faster, which could pull average CPI inflation for FY27 decisively below 3.4 percent. Benign energy prices are expected to support India’s growth outlook, with the estimated positive impact on annual GDP growth at around 10–15 basis points.

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Continued analysis since January 2022, indicating a downward trend in Brent and Indian Basket Crude Oil prices for a period approaching three years, has consistently produced lower crude oil prices. So, too, have crises in Venezuela or other politically unstable areas had little impact on continuing the upward trajectory of global petroleum prices. Brent has remained at approximately $60 per barrel for the last week.

Since crude oil accounts for the largest portion of India's total import combination, and because crude oil cannot be supplied domestically on short notice, decreasing oil costs should give India significant reductions in its overall import costs and assist the Rupee.

Using recent historical patterns, SBI Research estimates that assuming a USD/INR base of Rs 90.28, a 14 percent correction in crude oil prices could result in a 3 percent appreciation in the rupee to around Rs 87.5 per dollar. The US Energy Information Administration estimates Brent crude prices will average $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 globally.