Indian Solar Wafer Policy 2028: ALMM Rules, Deadline, Impact

Can India Reduce Solar Import Dependence Through Domestic Ingot and Wafer Manufacturing?

India's gap is upstream. Research reports put module capacity at 233 GW as of June 2026, nearly seven times cell capacity and 116 times ingot-wafer capacity.

That ratio implies ingot-wafer capacity of roughly 2 GW, which matches earlier government data, and a September 2026 report putting operational capacity at 2 GW.

PIB put List-I modules at about 172 GW and List-II cells at 27 GW in March 2026. These are nameplate capacity figures, not output.

Joshi had earlier said that India is moving beyond modules to build domestic wafer and ingot capacity, with the aim of having the entire solar manufacturing ecosystem within the country.

The investment pipeline:

Reported projects include:

Official projections cited by Agastya's CEO Bernhard Rack point to around 80 GW of ingot and wafer capacity by June 2028. That is a projection of announced plans. The gap between about 2 GW operating today and the 15 GW needed to trigger the first list is the real test of the India solar wafer policy 2028.

Hitesh Doshi, chairman and managing director of Waaree Energies, said that large-scale domestic capacity for ingots and wafers would help reduce import dependence and make the country’s solar supply chain more resilient.

Barriers:

Ingots and wafers are far more capital-intensive than modules, so utilization decides economics. The needed utilization for a 12 GW plant is at 80-85 percent.

Equipment such as crystal pullers and wire saws, plus consumables like quartz crucibles, will still be largely imported.

Policy has tried to ease one barrier: in March 2026 the cabinet set a 60-day processing timeline for investment proposals from land-border countries in sectors including polysilicon and ingot-wafer production.

Resilience and import dependence:

Localizing wafers moves part of the dependency upstream rather than removing it. India has no commercial polysilicon output yet, although there are reports of a pipeline of about 30 GW.

The rules could strengthen resilience at the wafer stage, while the polysilicon link stays exposed. Import dependence will fall only if the planned plants are built, approved by cell makers and run at full scale. The policy alone does not guarantee that.

Integrated players that control ingot, wafer, cell and module stages are best placed. IEEFA expects smaller, non-integrated manufacturers to face more pressure.

Also Read: Manufacturing in Maharashtra 2026: Industries, Hubs & Investments