India’s GDP growth is expected to turn positive in the third and fourth quarters of 2020-21, as per PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI). The first two quarters of the current fiscal registered negative growth. The hope for a positive growth hinges on the returns from various reforms undertaken by the government in the last ten months along with a demand boosting and investment inducing budget, it said.
As per PHDCCI, nine out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by the agency have performed positive.
"On the back of various reforms undertaken by the government in last 10 months along with a demand boosting and investment inducing Budget, the expectations of a positive GDP growth in Q3 and in Q4 FY 2020-21 are becoming strong," PHDCCI said.
The industry body further stated that the economic and business indicators such as unemployment rate, stock market, GST collections, manufacturing PMI, forex reserves, railway freight, merchandise exports, exchange rate and passenger vehicle sales have shown positive sequential growth in January as compared with December 2020.
India's GDP fell by 7.5 per cent during July-September quarter of the current fiscal, against the massive contraction of 23.9 per cent in the first quarter amid COVID-19 pandemic-led nationwide lockdown. For the full financial year 2020-21, the Indian economy is expected to contract by 7.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20, as per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the government.
As per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data, almost all sectors, barring agriculture, are going to see contraction in FY21.
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