Mobility – the movement of people and goods – is a fundamental human need and a key enabler of economic and social prosperity. After decades of relative stability, the mobility environment is undergoing a remarkable transformation with the advent of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, new business models and changing customers and shifting consumer preferences.
Electric Mobility is the most talked about subject the present time. The transportation industry, business and methods preparing for major transformation in the next decades. As we read this statement, there are many initiatives getting high rocketed across the globe, industry and institutions.
Finally people are asking for ways to resolve one of the greatest challenges of our time: is there a replacement for our scarce petroleum resources? How can CO2 emissions be reduced? Can we lower the demand for energy? One approach is sustainable mobility. Is there ways and means by which we can contribute to reduce the impact of global warming?
E-mobility, therefore, replaces oil with renewable electricity. Thereby reducing fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and overall energy consumption. In specific figures, this means that, to cover the same distance, a car running on electricity requires only about one quarter of the energy of a combustion engine. So far, so visionary. The electric motor –we call it an e-drive – is already making fulluse of this potential: with immediately available torque for spontaneous response and high performance with the utmost level of efficiency. Now we have to focus on the strength of the battery so that cars running purely on electricity will be able to go much further.
In this article we shall discuss about the future of mobility industry in general and the reason for moving into electric mobility and the socio-economic impact of the transformation in addition to challenges and opportunities.
Need for new mobility solution:
There has been too many discussions or hypes from different segment of the society on the new form of mobility. As we are aware the existing means of transport systems are time tested and proven and they have been serving the main purpose of mobility for more than a century. Why do we need this transformation? Is it really worth taking so much effort, time and money? It’s not just we, the individuals, even many big organizations and a nation across the planet is creating a big hype on the subject.
Let’s have closer look on the most obvious reasons for the necessity
One side we have increasing cause of concern for global warming. Some key facts on Current global gas concentrations in atmosphere:
• Carbon dioxide: 390 parts per million (ppm) – exceeds the natural range experienced in the last 650,000 years and is increasing by 1-2ppm each year
• All GHG emissions: increasing by 3.3 percent per annum since 2000
• Increase in global mean temperature by 0.7°C compared to pre-industrial times; a 4.9°C increase is expected by 2100
• 40 percent loss in arctic ice since 1980
• Rise in sea levels of 3-4 mm/year
• Increased levels of carbon dioxide absorbed by oceans is resulting in acidification
• 20-30 percent of plants, animals and fish at risk of extinction with a 1.5°C-2.5°C increase
• Adverse effects on agriculture, fisheries, forests and water resources
• Countries of low latitude and many coastal regions at risk of flooding
• Increased frequency of heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and related impacts (i.e. wild fires, heat stress, vegetation changes)
So we need to address the above issues at global level with the contribution from every nation, society across the planet. This impacts not only the current generation also the future generation. The main reason being industry revolution and resource utilization for the comforts we created over last two generations, we are answerable to our future generation and they too deserve a better quality of life.
Now let’s have a quick look at the Fossil fuel scenario. The oil reserves are getting depleted as the consumption is increasing with increasing demand for transportation. Though consumption for the purpose of mobility is around 40 percent that’s a significant share to have an impact on the demand, pricing and so on. The research data from various organizations confirms to the fact the oil reserves will be just sufficient for next two to three decades. We need to find an alternate.
The oil reserves are getting depleted as the consumption is increasing with increasing demand for transportation
The next factor we need to consider is the increasing pollution across the major cities in the world. In the recent time the population moving towards the cities like never before, cities are becoming more prone to pollution because of the industries and transportation. Of course we know that the government is enforcing emission norms through stringent policies. In fact in India we leaf frog from Bharat 4 to Bharat 6 to bring down the pollution levels. As per the data goes 14 out of 20 highly polluted cities in the world are in India. We will have bring down the CO2 levels of the vehicles to address this problem. World over 2-3 million people have reduced lifespan due to pollution related issues. Should we not do something about it?
Electric mobility is the most viable alternate to create a sustainable solution to all our future needs.
Future mobility opportunity:
There are three areas which would the future mobility
• Electric powertrain
• Connected and autonomous driving
• Mobility as a service or shared mobility The size of the market is roughly around 1 Trillion USD.
Technology trend would be as follows:
As the powertrain become electric and the complexity in vehicle propulsion will reduce. That’s mean lot of legacy technology in the automotive industry will extinct.
This would transform or increase the share of the component suppliers and especially the battery suppliers as the battery will have 30-40 percent share of the vehicle cost.
The Challenges and Opportunities:
The transition to electric mobility is happening now and if you look at the charts we see a movement upwards only in most of the countries. So the question of opportunity doesn’t arise. The total market size reaches to 300B USD in 2025 and increasing thereafter upto 1 trillion USD within a span of 15-20 years. The challenge is availability of technology and optimization of performance and cost.