In the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and consequent nationwide lockdown, India’s economy surprisingly made its way back to normalcy. Still, it needs to work more, as per the World Bank, which in its latest report has forecasted that India’s real GDP growth for fiscal year (FY21-22) could range from 7.5 to 12.5 per cent.
The Washington-based global lender, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report announced ahead of the annual Spring meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that the economy was already slowing when the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded.
After reaching 8.3 per cent in FY17, growth slowed down to 4.0 per cent in FY20, it said.
The deceleration was caused by a decline in private consumption growth and shocks to the financial sector (the collapse of a large non-bank finance institution), which compounded pre-existing weaknesses in investment, it said.
"Given the significant uncertainty pertaining to both epidemiological and policy developments, the real GDP growth for FY21-22 can range from 7.5 to 12.5 per cent, depending on how the ongoing vaccination campaign proceeds, whether new restrictions to mobility are required, and how quickly the world economy recovers," the World Bank said.
"It is amazing how far India has come compared to a year ago. If you think a year ago, how deep the recession was unprecedented declines inactivity of 30 to 40 per cent, no clarity about vaccines, huge uncertainty about the disease. And then if you compare it now, India is bouncing back, has opened up many of the activities, started vaccination and is leading in the production of vaccination," Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region, stated by a source.
Yet, the situation is still extremely challenging, both on the pandemic side with the flare-up that is being experienced now. It is a huge challenge to vaccinate everybody in India, the official said.
Most of the people misjudge the challenge, he said.
On the economic side, Mr Timmer said that still with the rebound and there is ambiguity here about the numbers, but it basically means that over two years there was no growth in India and there might well have been over two years, a decline in per capita income.
That's such a difference from what India was accustomed to. And it means that there are still many parts of the economy that have not recovered or have not fared and they would have without a pandemic. There is an enormous concern about the financial markets, he said.
As economic activity normalises, nationally and in key export markets, the current account is expected to return to mild deficits (around 1 per cent in FY22 and FY23) and capital inflows are projected by continued accommodative monetary policy and abundant international liquidity conditions, the report said.
Noting that the COVID-19 shock will lead to a long-lasting inflexion in India's fiscal trajectory, the report said that the general government deficit is expected to remain above 10 per cent of GDP until FY22. As a consequence, public debt is projected to peak at almost 90 per cent of GDP in FY21 before declining gradually thereafter.
As growth resumes and the labour market prospects get better, poverty reduction is expected to return to its pre-pandemic trajectory.
The poverty rate (at the USD 1.90 line) is proposed to return to pre-pandemic levels in FY22, falling within 6 and 9 per cent, and fall more to between 4 and 7 per cent by FY24, the World Bank said.
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